جۆری توێژینه‌وه‌ : Original Article

نوسه‌ر

Burhan Ali Mohammed. burhan.mohammed@spu.edu.iq Sulaimani Polytechnic University- Darbandixan technical institute- Accounting department

پوخته‌

Many studies have been investigated the relationship between oil prices, inflation and unemployment, as well as some others macroeconomics variables. This paper examines the relationship between oil prices, inflation, and unemployment rate in Iraq. For this purpose, this paper utilizing unit root and co-integration test analysis to annual data from 2000 to 2020. The regression analysis was carried out by the (ARDL) model and the existence of Philips Curve between inflation and unemployment in Iraq. The result shows that the relationship between oil prices and inflation is negative in the short run and positive in the long run. In contrast, the relationship between unemployment and inflation is positive in the short run and negative in the long run. Also, the result confirms Philips curve the relationship between inflation and unemployment in the short run in Iraq. To increase employment in Iraq, it has to grow investments in different sectors. Moreover, to keep inflation under control, it is necessary to maintain a corresponding level of economic and pricing activity.

وشه‌ بنچینه‌ییه‌كان

ناونیشانی توێژینه‌وه‌ [English]

The Relationship between Oil Prices, Inflation and Unemployment rate in Iraq, from 2000 to 2020

نوسه‌ر [English]

  • Burhan Mohammed

Burhan Ali Mohammed. burhan.mohammed@spu.edu.iq Sulaimani Polytechnic University- Darbandixan technical institute- Accounting department

پوخته‌ [English]

Many studies have been investigated the relationship between oil prices, inflation and unemployment, as well as some others macroeconomics variables. This paper examines the relationship between oil prices, inflation, and unemployment rate in Iraq. For this purpose, this paper utilizing unit root and co-integration test analysis to annual data from 2000 to 2020. The regression analysis was carried out by the (ARDL) model and the existence of Philips Curve between inflation and unemployment in Iraq. The result shows that the relationship between oil prices and inflation is negative in the short run and positive in the long run. In contrast, the relationship between unemployment and inflation is positive in the short run and negative in the long run. Also, the result confirms Philips curve the relationship between inflation and unemployment in the short run in Iraq. To increase employment in Iraq, it has to grow investments in different sectors. Moreover, to keep inflation under control, it is necessary to maintain a corresponding level of economic and pricing activity.

وشه‌ بنچینه‌ییه‌كان [English]

  • Oil price
  • nemployment
  • inflation
  • Philips curve and short and long run estimation
Ahmad, F. (2013) ‘The Effect of Oil Prices on Unemployment : Evidence from Pakistan’, 4(1), pp. 43–57.
Amjad, R. and Havers, J. (2009) Jobs for Iraq: an employment and decent work strategy Rashid.
Anning, L. et al., (2017) Inflation-Unemployment-and-Economic-Growth-Evidence-from-the-VAR-Model-Approach-for-the-Economy-of-Iraq. International Journal of Developing and Emerging Economies Vol.5, No.1, pp.26-39,.
Bala, U. and Chin, L. (2018) ‘Asymmetric impacts of oil price on inflation: An empirical study of African OPEC member countries’, Energies, 11(11). doi: 10.3390/en11113017.
Chinn, M. and Leblanc, M. (2004) ‘Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation ?’, Business Economics, 39(2), p. 38.
Chou, K. W. and Lin, P. C. (2013) ‘Oil price shocks and producer prices in Taiwan: an application of non-linear error-correction models’, Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 11(1), pp. 59–72. doi: 10.1080/14765284.2012.755302.
Dritsaki, C. and Dritsaki, M. (2013) ‘Phillips curve inflation and unemployment: an empirical research for Greece’, International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, 3(1/2), p. 27. doi: 10.1504/ijcee.2013.056265.
Fields, G. S. (2011) ‘Labor market analysis for developing countries’, Labour Economics, 18(SUPPL. 1), pp. S16–S22. doi: 10.1016/j.labeco.2011.09.005.
Furuoka, F. (2007) ‘Does the “Phillips curve” really exist? New empirical evidence from Malaysia’, Economics Bulletin, 5(16).
Hooker, M. A. (2002) ‘Are Oil Shocks Inflationary?: Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications versus Changes in Regime’, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 34(2), pp. 540–561. doi: 10.1353/mcb.2002.0041.
Issn, S. (2019) ‘Oil Price Shocks and Unemployment Rate : New Evidence from the MENA Region Oil Price Shocks and Unemployment Rate : New Evidence from the MENA Region’, (December).
Jiranyakul, K. (2018) ‘Oil price shocks and domestic inflation in Thailand’, (62797).
Kasseh, P. A. (2018) ‘The Relation between Inflation and Unemployment in the Gambia: Analysis of the Philips Curve’, Journal of Global Economics, 06(02), pp. 6–12. doi: 10.4172/2375-4389.1000294.
Löschel, A. and Oberndorfer, U. (2009) ‘Oil and unemployment in Germany’, Jahrbucher fur Nationalokonomie und Statistik, 229(2–3), pp. 146–162. doi: 10.1515/jbnst-2009-2-305.
Malik, K. Z., Ajmal, H. and Zahid, M. U. (2017) ‘Oil price shock and its impact on the macroeconomic variables of Pakistan: A structural vector autoregressive approach’, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(5), pp. 83–92.
Mehdi, A. (2018) Iraqi Oil: industry evolution and short and medium-term prospects, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
Mellquist, H., Femermo, M. and Hacker, S. (2007) ‘T h e R e la tio n s h ip B e twe e n t h e P ric e o f O il a n d U n emp lo y me n t in S we d e n’, (January).
Mohseni, M. and Jouzaryan, F. (2016) ‘Examining the Effects of Inflation and Unemployment on Economic Growth in Iran (1996-2012)’, Procedia Economics and Finance, 36(16), pp. 381–389. doi: 10.1016/s2212-5671(16)30050-8.
Mukhtarov, S., Mammadov, J. and Ahmadov, F. (2019) ‘The impact of oil prices on inflation: The case of Azerbaija’, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 9(4), pp. 97–102. doi: 10.32479/ijeep.7712.
Raifu, I. A., Aminu, A. and Folawewo, A. O. (2020) ‘Investigating the relationship between changes in oil prices and unemployment rate in Nigeria: linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approaches’, Future Business Journal, 6(1), pp. 1–18. doi: 10.1186/s43093-020-00033-w.
Sabr, S., Ahmed, Y. and Khan, T. (2021) ‘Government Budget Deficit and Economic Growth: Evidence from Iraq 1980-2018’, المجلة العربیة للإدارة, 0(0), pp. 389–404. doi: 10.21608/aja.2021.151252.
Tang, W., Wu, L. and Zhang, Z. X. (2010) ‘Oil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy’, Energy Economics, 32(SUPPL. 1), pp. S3–S14. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2010.01.002.
Trang, N. T. N., Tho, T. N. and Hong, D. T. T. (2017) ‘The impact of oil price on the growth, inflation, unemployment and budget deficit of Vietnam’, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(3), pp. 42–49.
World Bank and UNICEF (2020) ‘Assessment of COVID-19 Impact on Poverty and Vulnerability in Iraq’, (July). Available at: www.unicef.org/iraq/media/1181/file/Assessment of COVID-19 Impact on Poverty and Vulnerability in Iraq.pdf.
Xuan, P. P. and Chin, L. (2015) ‘Pass-through effect of oil price into consumer price: An empirical study’, International Journal of Economics and Management, 9(SpecialIssue), pp. 143–161.
Yelwa, M., David, O. O. K. and Omoniyi, A. E. (2015) ‘Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation, Unemployment and Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1987-2012’, Applied Economics and Finance, 2(3). doi: 10.11114/aef.v2i3.943.